Professor Jonathan Holslag invites influential defence expert Elbridge Colby to Brussels

Remaining the world’s strongest power: this, according to Elbridge Colby, is the best way to ensure the safety of the United States. The influential American defence expert argues that China must be the country’s top priority. Europe, meanwhile, needs to fend for itself. On 16 October, Colby will explain his views to an audience at the invitation of VUB professor Jonathan Holslag. 

Elbridge Colby has Donald Trump’s ear – at least when it comes to China. For two years during Trump’s presidency, Colby served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development. He is also closely involved in the Conservatives’ China policy in the ongoing election campaign. “Elbridge Colby belongs to the ‘China hawks’,” Jonathan Holslag explains. “You can agree or disagree with their hardline stance, but it’s crucial to understand their motives and plans. After all, America’s China policy will have a significant impact on Europe too.” 

What is Elbridge Colby’s vision?   

Jonathan Holslag: “It’s straightforward: America must remain number one, globally. But the focus is now entirely shifting towards the main rival, China. The US must weaken the industrial foundation of Chinese power through a strong trade policy and by reindustrialising itself. In terms of defence, the US also needs to ramp up its efforts.” 

Isn’t the country far ahead in terms of military power?   

“Not anymore. For instance, China’s shipbuilding capacity is hundreds of times greater than that of the US, and can quickly be used to build military ships. They’ve had the quantity for some time, and now the quality has caught up as well. It’s no longer inferior to what’s produced by a Western shipyard. And with their drones and other unmanned systems, China is already far ahead.” 

Does this worry the Americans?   

“Yes, a lot. During the Cold War, they still had the industrial capacity to quickly catch up. That’s no longer the case today. Attempts to modernise their navy are facing significant delays due to a shortage of shipyards and skilled workers. President Joe Biden’s plans to build complex factories for computer chips are encountering similar issues: too few engineers, too few skilled workers.” 

So they won’t be able to turn this around overnight?   

“In the best-case scenario, they might reverse the trend by 2030. This is partly due to the extremely costly global ‘war on terror’ and the neglect of parts of the military-industrial base.” 

“The Americans need all their energy and resources for Asia. If Russia becomes a threat to the Baltic states or Poland, the Europeans will have to handle that themselves” 

Yet China is also facing economic challenges, isn’t it?   

“When you look at the past 30 years, you see a spectacular shift in power from the West to the East. America lost ground and China gained power. More recently, we’ve reached a stalemate. China is struggling with its own economic challenges and the Americans are taking the first steps towards reindustrialisation. It’s hard to predict who will come out on top.” 

So, there is reason for Colby to focus militarily on Asia. How does he plan to keep China in check?   

“By building military capacity in the Pacific, but from a distance. Other American defence experts advocate for a permanent presence in the first island chain, close to Japan and Taiwan. Colby doesn’t think that’s a good idea and prefers to station troops on the second island chain, further east. The centre of this strategy, the island of Guam, is American territory. That means American forces won’t get too entangled in potential conflicts, for example between China and Taiwan, but they’ll be close enough to intervene with missiles and drones.” 

Colby says military build-up can be economically beneficial. How so? 

“Many middle-class Americans are worried about their purchasing power but see that enormous amounts of money are being spent on defence. Colby’s message, and by extension Trump’s, is that investing in weapons is good for security and creates jobs. The same, he argues, applies to Europe, which should also invest more in defence.” 

“We’re moving towards a world where tough nationalist thinkers like Colby are taking charge instead of the traditional liberal thinkers in Europe” 

There’s a consensus among Republicans about focusing on China. What about the Democrats?   

“They largely think the same. Like Colby, they support military build-up in East Asia, but from a distance, and they want to help Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and Australia arm themselves. They, too, want to curb China’s economic power and rebuild industry at home. The difference with Trump is that he wants to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese imports – a sledgehammer approach, so to speak. The Democrats want the same, but they’re using a finer scalpel.”