Perhaps it’s time to learn from the West’s failures in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan and focus fully on Syria’s reconstruction, writes Koert Debeuf in De Standaard on 9 December 2024.
Koert Debeuf is a professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB). In February 2025, his book "What You Need to Know to Understand the Middle East" will be published by De Bezige Bij.
I am writing this piece from Qatar, where I am attending the Doha Forum, a gathering of political leaders, diplomats, and experts to discuss the Arab world. Coincidentally or not, on Saturday, Doha, the capital of Qatar, also hosted a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The subject was clear: Syria. Following the meeting, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was interviewed, and nearly all questions centred on Syria. Frustrated, Lavrov asked, “Can we not talk about Ukraine?”
Although the Assad regime in Syria had not yet officially fallen, the rebels were rapidly advancing on the Syrian capital, Damascus. On the night of Saturday to Sunday, Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad, fled the capital, and later, the country altogether.
On Sunday, many attendees of the Doha Forum were eagerly awaiting the session with Iran’s Foreign Minister, but it was suddenly removed from the schedule. Instead, his Turkish counterpart held an impromptu press conference, stating that Turkey would do everything in its power to prevent chaos in Syria. He expressed hope that this development would enable the millions of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey to finally return home.
The atmosphere at the Doha Forum was extraordinary. No one seemed able to fully grasp the magnitude of what had occurred overnight. Many Syrians wept tears of joy, while others wondered what the future would hold. Questions were everywhere — even among the most seasoned experts.
End of a Barbaric Dictatorship
Almost everyone agreed on one point: it was good that the barbaric dictatorship of the Assad regime had finally come to an end. The Assads — father and son — had ruled Syria for an astonishing 53 years with a level of brutality rarely seen. No regime had been as merciless towards its own people as the Assads’. People were imprisoned and tortured, often to death, for the slightest hint of dissent. The protests of 2011 during Syria’s own version of the Arab Spring were crushed with brute force. Hundreds of thousands died, while millions suffered from hunger or were left with no option but to flee.
As early as 2011, it was clear that the Syrian army had little appetite for fighting its own people. Many soldiers had no desire to die for Assad and defected to the opposition en masse. To maintain control, the regime kept much of its army confined to barracks. It was Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia who kept Assad in power. But now that all three of these allies have been weakened and were unable to halt the rebel offensive, the Syrian army’s response was clear: soldiers simply walked away, opening the path to Damascus for the rebels.
In every city the rebels captured, prison doors were flung open, and prisoners who had often been detained for decades on political charges were freed. The scenes of these reunions, with family members who in many cases had no idea if their loved ones were still alive, were heart-wrenching.
A Blow to Iran and Russia
What does the fall of Assad mean for the region and the wider world? First and foremost, it is a significant blow to Iran. For Tehran, Syria was a vital partner in the so-called “Axis of Resistance” against the West. Syria provided the channel through which Hezbollah in Lebanon was armed. Iran poured vast amounts of money, time, and energy into keeping Assad in power. In fact, Iran had de facto control over Syria’s military and security apparatus, believing that Syrians were not capable of doing the job themselves. In this way, Syria became a kind of vassal state for Iran on the Middle East chessboard.
Iran was already facing setbacks, with Israel having significantly weakened both Hamas and Hezbollah. The fall of Assad could further undermine Iran’s regime, with Iranian citizens questioning the legitimacy of their own government. Many Iranians already believed their country was spending too much on foreign allies while they themselves were struggling to make ends meet. The pressing question now is: why was all this internal suffering necessary in the first place?
The fall of Assad is also a major blow for Russia, which had two key reasons for supporting the Syrian regime. Firstly, Syria allowed Russia to use the port of Tartus to station warships, giving Moscow its only direct access to the Mediterranean Sea.
Secondly, Russia wanted to demonstrate that it would stand by its allied leaders no matter what. Vladimir Putin has long believed that the many revolutions in and around Russia were orchestrated by the West to weaken Russian influence. To counter this, he pledged to crush such uprisings wherever possible. But now, Russia’s inability to stop the Syrian rebels serves as painful evidence of the declining strength of the Russian military.
What’s Next for Syria?
The big question now is what lies ahead for Syria itself. The group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has a terrorist past with links to IS and Al-Qaeda, although it claims to have renounced those ties. HTS leaders have recently stated their desire for a Syria where all citizens, regardless of their faith, can call the country home. They have called on Syria’s Kurds to join forces with them. So far, there is no evidence that HTS is going back on those promises.
However, HTS will now have to sit down with the many other groups in Syria — including the army and the current government — to chart the country’s future. As of now, no clear roadmap has been proposed.
Europe and the United States face a choice. They could wait and see what happens next, deciding later whether or not to remove HTS from their lists of terrorist organisations. Alternatively, they could seize the moment, join forces, and help rebuild Syria.
Perhaps it’s time to learn from the mistakes made in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan. By setting aside ideological differences, the West could focus on the future of Syria and the wider region. Instead of viewing the new Syria as a potential threat, perhaps it should be seen as an unexpected opportunity.*
*This is a machine translation. We apologise for any inaccuracies.