A new international study, led by a team of scientists from the UK and Belgium, has revealed that climate change is contributing to an increase in burnt area worldwide, despite human interventions trying to temper this trend. The study, which compared wildfire models with and without the effects of climate change, shows that in many regions climate change is increasing the area burnt by vegetation fires, especially in sensitive ecosystems such as African savannas, Australia, and Siberia.

The research uses advanced climate models and wildfire models to simulate the impact of climate change on wildfires.

However, the study's findings point to large regional differences. In Africa, where up to 70% of the global burnt area is located, a marked decline in wildfires is observed, particularly in savannahs.

The team used models that take into account various factors such as climate, vegetation, and population density. The researchers stress that while human activities such as fire suppression and landscape management can have a dampening effect, this is often not enough to fully counteract the impact of climate change, especially in years with extreme weather.

The results suggest that if the current trend continues, the area burnt due to climate change will increase significantly in the coming decades.

The article was published as:

Burton*, C., Lampe*, S., Kelley, D.I., Thiery, W., Hantson, S., Christidis, N., Gudmundsson, L., Forrest, M., Burke, E., Chang, J., Huang, H., Ito, A., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Lasslop, G., Li, W., Nieradzik, L., Li, F., Chen, Y., Randerson, J., Reyer, C.P.O., Mengel, M., Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change, Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w.

*Chantelle Burton and Seppe Lampe contributed equally to this study.

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More info on current extreme wildfires: State of Wildfires (uea.ac.uk)

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Contact:

Seppe Lampe: seppe.lampe@vub.be, +32479526226

Wim Thiery: wim.thiery@vub.be, +3226293029