Is migration also the defining issue for you in the 2024 elections?

2024 will be a major election year in Belgium. As part of VUB’s public engagement programme, the BIRMM research group is organising panel discussions to offer scientifically supported insights on the subjects of asylum and migration – a crucial endeavour when most parties are politicising these issues. 

The VUB carries out an array of scientific research on migration and diversity, across various disciplines, departments and institutes. In January 2018, BIRMM – the Brussels Interdisciplinary Research Centre on Migration and Minorities – was established, uniting 128 VUB researchers from 11 disciplines. BIRMM directors Prof Ilke Adam and Prof Florian Trauner shed light on what we can expect from the panel discussions. 

Ilke Adam: “The recent Flemish media debate around the opinion polls indicated that migration is the pivotal issue for people. As a result, the far-right is leading in the polls. With elections on the horizon, it seemed prudent to offer voters a clear view. We’re gathering experts from various faculties for a panel discussion, alongside experts working in the field. 

Why has migration been high on political agendas for decades?  

Florian Trauner: “During the Cold War in Europe, other issues took precedence, and we had different enemies. But since the fall of the Berlin Wall, migration increasingly took centre stage in the political discourse – also because we expanded towards Eastern Europe and more people migrated to Western Europe. It’s not merely about the numbers. Populists increasingly focused on migration, tying it closely to security concerns.” 

Is the situation with migrant numbers as dire as many parties make it seem? Florian: “The percentage of migration has remained constant since WWII. Although there’s been a slight increase in absolute numbers, this applies to the entire population. Approximately 2.5 to 3.5% of the global population are migrants, a figure that has been relatively stable for decades.”  

Ilke: “The public's attitude towards migration has also remained stable over the years, yet we see greater success for far-right parties. When they prioritise migration as an electoral issue, people follow suit.” 

Migration remains stable, but some say that’s due to better-guarded European borders. Is that true?  

Ilke: “That has made no difference. We’ve gone from 50km of fence to 3,000km, with a push-back policy that no longer respects human rights. Nonetheless, migration remains steady. People often overlook that the most politicised forms of migration are asylum and family reunification, yet the primary influx in Europe is due to labour migration. If you want an open economy, you will always need migrants.” 

It seems we are in a bidding war of anti-migration. Why are so few political parties countering this issue?  

Florian: “Far-right parties dictate the migration agenda, compelling other parties to emulate them and thus present a watered-down version of extreme right policies. Even centrist parties have shifted. Socialists, too, chart a toned-down extreme right course in the hopes of capturing votes. Curiously, labour migration is seldom discussed in this debate. People only see images of refugees in boats, and that defines the issue. Whereas, in reality, other types of migration are far more significant. Every year, around 2.25 to 3 million people from non-EU countries legally enter the EU, in sharp contrast to the 125,000 to 200,000 irregular arrivals. Our panel discussions aim to show that migration has many more dimensions."  

Ilke: “We always kick off the EU Migration Policy course with quiz questions for the students, like ‘Which EU country issues the most residency permits to newcomers?’ Nobody thinks of Poland. Yet even before the war in Ukraine, Poland had a significant number of labour migrants. The common perception is that a migrant is non-white and unskilled, yet we have many more migrants within the EU.” 

What happened to Angela Merkel’s slogan “Wir schaffen das”, or “we can handle this”?  

Florian: “That was in 2015, at the height of what was deemed a migration crisis. But when we talk actual numbers, Germany is the only European country on the list of countries taking in the most asylum seekers. Europe only hosts a tiny fraction of the world’s refugees. The countries hosting the most are in the Global South. Take Turkey or Lebanon, for instance. In Lebanon, refugees make up about 20% of the population; in Europe, it’s barely 3%. We certainly should be able to ‘handle’ that. However, Belgium takes an excessively long time to make decisions, leading to people having to stay in asylum centres for prolonged periods with no space for new people.” 

What would happen if borders were simply opened?  

Ilke: “In a world of nation states, borders and passports, the idea of completely open borders is a fiction. They won’t just disappear tomorrow. More open borders actually allow for greater migration control than fewer. Closed borders don’t reduce migration; they lead to more illegal migration, more dangerous routes and human smuggling. If we open the borders more for legal migration, we can plan and control who comes in more effectively, not less. People then have no need to vanish under the radar.” 

What kind of audience do you expect at the panel discussions?  

“In general, people who are confused by the heated discussions and want to inform themselves. Definitely students, but not only students. The panels begin with a short presentation outlining the scientific research on the topic, followed by a multi-voice debate with experts working in the field. We’ve consciously chosen not to have political parties speak.”